May 23 will set the political course for India for the next five years!
As many as 900-million voters sealing their choice of representatives through a 7-phase process that began on April 11, ending on May 19, will form the 543 member strong Lok Sabha.
Various trends, opinion polls, biased media and the highly-motivated cadre indicate the return of the Achhe Din Man, but clarity on the number of seats Bharatiya Janata Party will pull in its favour is different to predict.
But as counting of votes begins on May 23, we’ll get answers to all our questions: Which party will run the country, who will be the Premier, whose ideology will run the biggest democracy of the world, who will be the next Mr Prime Minister! And the most important, did I contribute towards making an effective government.
IndiaTimes.Live team talked to many party sources, grass root level cadre, Indian mediapersons, political analysts and tried to decode the whispers in the corridors of the political arena. One thing that is getting reflected clearly is that Congress will gain immensely, but not to the extent of forming the government. It is more likely to occupy the benches meant for the Opposition and prove to be a strong watchdog in the House.
The vote bank swing towards Congress
Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s effort of reaching out to people and taking Prime Minister Narendra Modi headlong during campaigning surely has turned voters in his favour.
The only place where Congress is likely to fail is with the voters who are still so smitten by the Modi factor that they would want to give him another 5 years in the saddle. The ruling sentiment is that if Congress could get 40 years to govern India, then BJP surely deserves one more.
Political pundits are predicting an upswing for Congress, from 44 seats to about 100 seats. This can be credited not only to anti-incumbency but because the common man somewhere still relates with Congress as a secular party. Masses, especially minorities, have been very disturbed with Modi’s Hindutva agenda. A very senior Congress leader said that by and large, Congress goes by the belief that religion is a personal matter but it shouldn’t threaten the country’s security.
The 1984 riots, Babri masjid, Gujarat riots, Bombay blasts – are religion-related incidents, which bring India under the scanner of global politics. So, the reason for the vote-bank swing to Congress will be because the nation still believes in Congress as the best party for India, but as it is a democracy, everyone should be given a fair chance to perform and deliver.
Uttar Pradesh: The game changer state
A total of 80 seats make Uttar Pradesh the political playground of the nation.
Ironical, but fact of the matter is that Uttar Pradesh decides the power holder at the Centre, but has its own hands empty. Unemployment, poor infrastructure, high crime rate, sad literacy numbers are issues that mar the state.
One of the many TV channels in India claimed that BJP will get 45 seats in UP compared to 71 in 2014 and Congress will get only 4. The rest go to the regional parties. Interestingly, the national political playground is also turning into one for regional parties. Is it that masses are losing faith in the National parties and turning to regional leaders or because it’s a phase of opportunity politics at play. Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Smriti Irani, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav and many big wigs are fighting elections in UP, which forces all political hawks to stay on a tight vigil.
No Modi Magic in South India
Not only Mughals, Mr Modi also has not been able to cross the Deccan plateau and charm the South Indians. One of the hardcore critics of Mr Modi said, may be the south Indians are too well read and intelligent, it takes more than charisma to impress them. But what is the real reason that BJP didn’t even try making an impact in south India.
On the contrary, Rahul Gandhi travelled to South quite extensively and also got a huge cadre support there. Is it the 133-year-old heritage that South Indians respect or the fact that South India bears the weight of Rajive Gandhi’s sacrifice for the homeland.
As one media person said, politics in South India is not a festival unlike north India. People vote but take good time to decide which button to press.
Did Modi feel it would be wastage of time in South India, when regional state-level parties hold the dominance and are the real choice of people. But that has always been the case in South India, then why did Modi not allure the South Indians, a question still left answered or the question that will answer itself on May 23 when UPA gets main support from South India.
What is good for India?
Definitely, not the money that is thrown around to impress the voters. If the party in power does what it promised in its manifesto and has a good Opposition and perfect media critics, then no country can go wrong.
An ideal situation will be for all variables to remain constant but the fact is just the opposite. Coalition government, trading of ministries, weak/meek opposition, media completely sabotaged, but still the common man is waiting for Achhe Din.
As we are seeing, the times of single party in power or Opposition are over and it’s time of Coalitions and Mahagathbandhans, we would name it marriage of convenience among political parties. Mayawati hates Akhilesh but they are together in UP to march to Delhi, AAP and Congress might join hands in Delhi, BJP will please all a little here and a little there just to extend its arm much to touch the finishing line.
But is this the kind of government that India needs? The one standing at a place where Pakistan is wanting a fight back, China is looking straight into her eyes, unemployment is at its ebb, businesses are going through a bad phase, the green cover is bruised, crime rates are increasing, the economy is still recovering from demonetisation and GST.
Who will address the issues of the nation? All Mr Achhe Din is worried about is the ‘gau mata’!
What will change for the aam aadmi of Mera Bharat on 23 May?
Will it be Achhe Din finally? Will strong hands build the country’s economy to let the world know that India is the rising super power, which has all the answers, has bubbling youth and the perfect place to invest in.